Over the weekend, President Biden and the Democrats were confronted with what could be their most foreboding poll of the 2024 election cycle, intensifying a question that has lingered for some time: Would the party benefit from a different candidate at the helm?
This particular poll indicates that might indeed be the case, although it’s not as straightforward as some anxious Biden supporters might speculate.
The New York Times/Siena College poll presents data that shows Donald Trump leading Biden in five out of six swing states analyzed. If these numbers persist and both candidates remain in the race, the indicted former president could very well secure a return to the White House.
However, some have seized upon a potential glimmer of hope for the Democrats. In addition to illustrating Trump’s lead by an average of four percentage points, the poll inquired about a hypothetical race without Biden. An anonymous “Democratic candidate” fundamentally alters the race dynamics, turning a four-point Democratic deficit against Trump into an eight-point lead, with 48 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
In essence, it appears that Democrats are potentially leaving a substantial number of voters untapped and, in the process, a potential victory with Biden. This has led some to propose the notion of nominating a different candidate.
Former Barack Obama strategist David Axelrod entertained this possibility, while Bill Kristol explicitly endorsed the idea, citing the “generic” ballot. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who challenged Biden in the primaries, also pointed to this finding, noting, “I could offer no statement more powerful than the one made by suffering Americans in today’s NY Times poll.”
However, as previously emphasized, generic ballots can be misleading. They encourage people to envision an ideal alternative candidate in such a race, as opposed to the potentially flawed real-world alternatives. Would California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) or Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) genuinely outperform Trump by such a margin? It’s doubtful. Even if they did at this moment, increased scrutiny would likely take a toll.
What many missed in the poll is that a generic Democrat is not the only one significantly outperforming the likely actual candidate to lead the ticket.
The poll also explored a scenario without Trump. The outcome? The same 12-point shift in the margins. The GOP’s advantage goes from an average of four points with Trump to an average of 16 points without him, leading 52-36.
This raises the question of whether the detractors will once again determine the outcome of the presidential election.
If it’s reasonable to discuss how much Republicans would benefit without Trump, it’s equally reasonable to have the same conversation about Democrats and Biden.
The real question then becomes: What will the Democratic Party do? In Trump’s case, there is at least a readily available alternative who currently polls better: former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. She consistently outperforms Trump in a general election, extending his four-point lead over Biden to eight points.